Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is facing one of the most significant threats to his rule in decades, as Israeli military operations have systematically targeted and eliminated key figures within his elite inner circle.

In recent months, several top commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) — long considered the backbone of Khamenei’s power — have been killed. Among them: IRGC commander Hossein Salami, war strategist Ali Shadmani, and General Gholam Ali Rashid. Their deaths have left a noticeable vacuum in Iran’s security and military leadership, raising internal concerns about stability and succession planning.

While Khamenei still holds considerable influence through political channels and his son Mojtaba Khamenei, the loss of his most trusted generals marks a significant turning point. Analysts say the IRGC, which has dominated Iran’s regional strategy and nuclear posture, is now operating with a weakened command structure.

The fallout is being felt across the region. Israeli strikes have not only hit inside Iran but have also severely disrupted Iran's regional proxies, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and key militia leaders in Syria. This comes amid increased Western pressure over Iran’s nuclear ambitions and widespread economic hardship at home caused by prolonged sanctions.

With military leadership diminished and Iran’s deterrence power under strain, observers warn that Khamenei could be pushed toward risky decisions — or be forced into negotiations under pressure. Behind closed doors, Tehran is said to be considering diplomatic options, though any move to de-escalate may trigger backlash from hardliners within the regime.

This moment, some analysts say, could be the most fragile period for the Islamic Republic since the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s — and its next steps could shape the future of the Middle East.